Byron Donalds' Chances of Beating David Jolly in Florida Governor Race – Poll – Image for illustrative purposes only (Image credits: Flickr)
Florida — President Trump hailed U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds as a "fighter" during a recent rally in The Villages, declaring him "so far ahead in the polls." The comments underscored Donalds’ strong position in the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis. Recent surveys confirm the Republican congressman’s lead in both his party’s primary and hypothetical general election matchups against Democrat David Jolly.[1][2]
Trump’s Rally Shoutout Signals Momentum
Trump delivered the praise on May 1 at a senior-focused event in The Villages, a Republican stronghold. He noted Donalds’ commanding primary standing without needing to summon him onstage. The endorsement builds on Trump’s earlier backing of the Naples congressman, who has positioned himself as a loyal ally.[3]
Donalds responded on social media, pledging to continue fighting for Florida. The moment highlighted the race’s national profile, with Trump drawing crowds amid his own approval ratings hovering around even in the state. Republicans view such support as a boon in a contest expected to draw heavy national spending.
Key Polls Paint a Competitive Picture
Emerson College Polling’s March survey of 1,125 likely voters showed Donalds holding a 5-point advantage over Jolly in a head-to-head matchup. The congressman garnered 44% to Jolly’s 39%, with 15% undecided. A similar edge appeared against Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, another potential Democratic foe.[2][4]
An earlier University of North Florida poll reinforced the trend, with Donalds at 42% against Jolly’s 36% among likely voters. Independents leaned toward the Democrat in that survey, 33% to 26%, signaling potential vulnerabilities for the GOP front-runner. These margins fall within typical margins of error, keeping the race fluid.[5]
| Matchup | Donalds (R) | Jolly (D) | Undecided/Other |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson (Mar 2026) | 44% | 39% | 17% |
| UNF (Feb-Mar 2026) | 42% | 36% | ~22% |
Donalds Dominates GOP Primary Field
In the Republican primary, Donalds commands clear support. Emerson found him at 46% among GOP voters, far ahead of Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and others at 4% each, with 39% undecided. His strength spans age groups, including a majority among those over 60.[2]
The UNF poll echoed this, citing a separate survey where Donalds led by 40 points. Challengers like state House Speaker Paul Renner have criticized him personally, calling him "compromised" with baggage. Yet Donalds’ Trump ties and fundraising haul keep him firmly ahead.[6]
Democratic Side and General Election Hurdles
Jolly leads the Democratic primary at 21% in Emerson’s data, doubling Demings’ 10%, though over half remain undecided. The former congressman, who switched from Republican during Trump’s first term, appeals to moderates and independents frustrated with partisanship.
General election dynamics favor Republicans among their base and Trump voters, where Donalds exceeds 80% support. Democrats and Black voters back Jolly overwhelmingly, however. Hispanic voters split nearly even, and gender gaps appear: men favor Donalds, women tilt to Jolly.[5][2]
As the November 3 contest nears, Donalds’ lead offers momentum, but independents will decide the outcome.