NASA wants to land astronauts on the moon in 2028. Will SpaceX’s Starship or Blue Origin’s Blue Moon lander be ready in time? – Image for illustrative purposes only (Image credits: Unsplash)
Artemis II marked a milestone in April 2026 when four astronauts looped around the Moon aboard NASA’s Orion spacecraft, the first crewed deep-space mission in over 50 years.[1][2] That success cleared the path for more ambitious goals, including a crewed landing near the lunar South Pole. Yet NASA’s timetable now rests on two commercial landers – SpaceX’s Starship Human Landing System and Blue Origin’s Blue Moon – that have yet to demonstrate full capabilities.[3]
The agency restructured its plans earlier this year to accelerate progress while prioritizing safety. Officials aim for at least one surface mission annually after 2028, but technical hurdles for the landers loom large.[4]
Artemis Overhaul Accelerates Lunar Cadence
NASA announced significant changes to the Artemis program in February 2026, inserting a new demonstration mission and standardizing rocket configurations to boost launch frequency. The shift responded to delays and geopolitical pressures, drawing lessons from the Apollo era’s step-by-step buildup.[4] Previously eyed for a lunar landing, what became Artemis III now focuses on Earth-orbit tests.
NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman emphasized the need for speed: “NASA must standardize its approach, increase flight rate safely, and execute on the President’s national space policy. With credible competition from our greatest geopolitical adversary increasing by the day, we need to move faster, eliminate delays, and achieve our objectives.”[4] This approach aims to reduce risks by flying hardware in configurations close to operational ones from the start.
Artemis IV, the program’s first crewed landing, holds a target of early 2028. Two astronauts would transfer from Orion to a commercial lander in lunar orbit for a week of surface science, including sample collection and experiments at the South Pole.[5]
Artemis III Sets Stage for Lander Validation
Set for late 2027, Artemis III will launch Orion atop the SLS rocket to low Earth orbit for rendezvous and docking trials with one or both commercial landers.[3][2] The mission checks propulsion, life support, communications, and spacesuit operations – essential before lunar commitment.
This demo emerged from lander development timelines that fell short of earlier lunar ambitions for Artemis III. Both providers confirmed readiness for the 2027 tests during congressional testimony, but uncrewed lunar demonstrations remain prerequisites for crewed flights.[2] NASA plans to select the lander for Artemis IV based on these outcomes, potentially flying whichever proves reliable first.
SpaceX Starship HLS: Rapid Iteration Faces Key Tests
SpaceX’s Starship variant for human landings relies on its massive Super Heavy booster and in-orbit refueling, a technology unproven at scale. The company nears its Starship Version 3 test flight, incorporating upgraded Raptor 3 engines after mixed results in prior flights.[2]
Major hurdles include cryogenic fuel transfer without excessive boil-off, uncrewed lunar touchdown and ascent, and outfitting for crew life support. Current prototypes simulate payloads like Starlink satellites rather than human habitats. Internal schedules point to orbital refueling demos in 2026 and an uncrewed HLS landing in 2027.[6]
| Key Starship Milestones | Target |
|---|---|
| Version 3 flight test | Near-term 2026 |
| Orbital refueling demo | June 2026 |
| Uncrewed lunar landing | June 2027 |
| Artemis III docking | Late 2027 |
Blue Origin Blue Moon: Cargo Path to Crewed Flights
Blue Origin’s Blue Moon Mk1 cargo lander completed vacuum chamber tests at NASA’s Johnson Space Center and moved to final preparations for a 2026 uncrewed lunar mission.[2][1] The larger Mk2 version targets crew transport, backed by a $3.4 billion NASA contract.
Development proceeds methodically, contrasting SpaceX’s high-cadence tests. Challenges mirror Starship’s: propellant management, lunar demos, and crew accommodations. The New Glenn rocket, needed for launches, cleared a recent anomaly but faces certification scrutiny.[2] An uncrewed South Pole landing could follow Mk1 success.
- Mk1 vacuum tests: Complete
- New Glenn clearance: Recent
- Uncrewed demo: Late 2026
- Artemis III participation: 2027 potential
2028 Landing Within Reach Despite Hurdles
Artemis IV’s South Pole focus promises access to water ice and scientific hotspots. Crews would conduct geology, deploy instruments, and scout sites for sustained presence.[5] NASA requested $2.8 billion in 2027 funding for lander contracts, signaling commitment.[2]
Isaacman testified that late-2027 tests enable early 2028 landings, with flexibility to choose the proven system. President Trump echoed optimism during an April 2026 event, noting a strong chance for a moon walk before 2029.[2] Annual missions could follow, building toward Mars.
Both landers carry the weight of history. Their performance in coming tests will determine if NASA meets its 2028 deadline or faces further slips. For now, the agency balances ambition with caution, one orbit at a time.