Trump’s Iran war is pushing American farmers to the brink – Image for illustrative purposes only (Image credits: Pixabay)
Fertilizer prices jumped from roughly $400 per ton in early February to nearly $600 per ton by early March, a surge tied directly to the closure of trade routes through the Strait of Hormuz. The increase has left independent producers across the country facing costs they cannot cover even after last year’s federal relief payments. In Windsor, North Carolina, ninth-generation farmer Charles Harden described the situation as the most difficult period for American agriculture in the nation’s history.
Supply Routes Disrupted by Conflict
Half of the world’s nitrogen-based urea fertilizer and 30 percent of global ammonia exports normally move through the Strait of Hormuz. When shipping halted, supplies tightened immediately and prices climbed for phosphorus, nitrogen, and ammonia. Farmers who had delayed purchases after 2025 market swings found themselves locked out of affordable options once the conflict began.
China, which accounts for 10 percent of worldwide fertilizer exports, further restricted shipments in February and tightened controls again in April. Industry analysts expect those limits to remain in place until at least August 2026, well past the main planting window. The combination of blocked sea lanes and export curbs has created the tightest supply conditions in decades.
Immediate Strain on Operations
An April survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation found that 70 percent of U.S. farmers cannot afford the fertilizer they need for the current season. In the Southeast the figure is even higher, with 78 percent reporting shortfalls after only 19 percent had pre-booked supplies before the price spike. Diesel fuel costs have risen 54.4 percent nationwide since the conflict started, pushing average prices to $5.67 per gallon by mid-May.
Producers must now decide whether to reduce application rates and accept lower yields or borrow more heavily to maintain output. Many are already directing every available dollar toward creditors rather than reinvesting in their operations. The result is a narrowing margin between input costs and expected revenue that threatens farm viability for the year ahead.
Policy Responses Under Review
The Department of Agriculture has pointed to a 150-day suspension of the Jones Act that allows greater flexibility in moving fertilizer domestically. Officials have also urged major producers to prioritize American buyers and permit price locks extending through 2028. New domestic production facilities are under construction, yet full operation of the newest ammonia plant is not expected until 2029.
Some industry voices advocate short-term federal payments to bridge the gap, while others call for invoking the Defense Production Act to treat fertilizer chemicals as a national priority. That step would give the government authority to monitor supply chains, curb hoarding, and stabilize distribution without additional direct outlays. Both approaches remain under active discussion as planting season advances.
Longer-Term Market Concerns
Three large North American companies control the bulk of domestic fertilizer capacity, and federal investigators are examining whether years of coordinated pricing have limited competition. A single new production facility requires three to four years to build and reach full output, meaning any increase in supply will arrive too late to ease this season’s pressures.
Farmers have been advised to shift toward less nitrogen-intensive crops such as soybeans, yet many operations lack the flexibility to change planting plans quickly. Reduced application rates carry the risk of measurable yield losses that compound the financial strain. Without broader competition or faster domestic capacity, the same cost pressures are expected to persist into future seasons.
The market’s not working the way it should. These major producers have really worked to restrict and limit access to any competitors to get into the market.
Independent producers continue to weigh daily decisions about inputs, debt, and family obligations while waiting for clearer signals on relief or supply improvements. The current squeeze illustrates how quickly global shipping disruptions can translate into domestic production challenges for one of the country’s most essential industries.